Christmas 2017
14 September 2017
COMING UP
*Special*: Christmas is coming
Soon: What about Wilko?
Next: M&S - Did the lack of a sale impact food?
Later: Wish it could be Christmas every day?
The Christmas 'tin wars' have kicked off with aplomb as Tesco go in at 2 for £7, ahead of Morrisons at 2 for £8 this week. This war will go on and on throughout the season of course, but inflation would leave you thinking that 2 for £7 (a record low last year) was perhaps sketchy on the margin side of things to say the least....
In keeping with tradition, it's been an early start for Tesco in terms of Christmas, they've put an initial range of Christmas confectionery out, which has then grown to a more comprehensive 'phase 1' with various Biscuits and Chocolates available.
Another trend for Tesco is 'exclusives', they like an exclusive product and utilise these a fair bit under Dave Lewis. It makes sense for Tesco to offer these as naturally, it drives traffic and customers can't get these anywhere else.
Unless they sell poorly and end up in Home Bargains. Perhaps not the Tesco lines, but it was interesting to note they were flagging their own label as 'exclusively for' too....
Usual fare here of course, the big brands are all there in the range, interestingly own label still struggles to gain traction in the Christmas range.
Both Aldi and Lidl are featuring brands in their Christmas range each year for this reason, own label is still a challenge around Christmas and in particular getting those biscuits out in front of guests.
Belmont biscuits are not quite the same as the Cadbury's selection....This could lead to a reduction in gifts from the family the following year...
Tesco have been very strong on Christmas since Dave Lewis arrived at the chain, improving year on year with an impressive package of shippers, signage and ranges.
One of their biggest campaigns has been pushing back against Boots with their 3 for 2 gifting, seemingly Boots are happy with their strategy to push on with 3 for 2, despite the value based questions at times.
Whereas Tesco drop their huge range of fragrance / Health/Beauty gift sets down to half price / better than half price throughout the season. The appearance of this range at full price indicates this year will see a similar strategy pursued.
Sainsbury's struggled at Christmas, despite their cheap Turkeys which made sense at a high level. But are customers in to Sainsbury's for market leading Turkeys?
They appreciate it if they're in store perhaps, but they're not going to cross the road for one, especially if they don't know that the Turkeys are cheap.
That aside, Sainsbury's didn't perform last Christmas at all. If you consider that their strength is generally over the festive period where customers trade up and the premium labels perform well, it was tailor made for Sainsbury's.
However it didn't happen last year, the advert missed the beat versus Mog the year before, the signage remained the same and the wider offer was confused and in some cases, stale, especially on premium.
The lack of multibuys was also a concern, the wider strategy is just that, but we still see the same behaviours at Christmas that we always see. Folk buying 16 bottles of Milk as the shops are shut for one day, but 'we have guests over'.
Queues build at the cigarette kiosk as people buy 60 cigarettes for the one day they're at home, without a store being open. There is still a need to get volume / bulk in for Christmas, with people entertaining and hosting meaning they need more food but like anything, are never quite sure how much they need.
Therefore a lack of multibuys at Christmas puzzles, especially on party food where price is brought in to harsh reality at the shelf edge. Sainsbury's were reasonably fair but customers don't want to think about the price on party food, they just want 4 for 3 or 3 for 2..... It needs to become mindless almost.
That aside, they've landed some new home baking lines which show there will be a new theme for signage and products this year.
Panettone is always a favourite and their Bakery range has landed in store on a phase 1 basis, Mince Pies et al are in now with the core Bakery ranges of larger Cakes to arrive in the coming weeks.
Despite the Bakery range landing in September, the buyer looks desperate for sales given the recommendation at the shelf edge....
It's a bit early.... Plus I think recommending premium lines is a bit 'easy'. You'd almost want a line recommending that is core own label and represents 'surprising' value.
Much more to come on Christmas, and Halloween! Where the focus will be on the next email as we deviate from the core 'plan' to cover the developments around seasonal.
From the Grocery Insight newsletter archive, first sent to subscribers on 14 September 2017. Steve now writes at read.groceryinsight.com. See also the blog archive and briefings.